An astronomer’s recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 has caused widespread concern globally because of its possible danger to Earth. The Aster Terrestrial-Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope based in Chile spotted this asteroid and it is currently calculated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter. Even though currently the chance of it colliding with Earth is exceedingly low (2,3%), scientists are still concerned.
Tracking and monitoring progress
NASA, along with other international space agencies, is using the James Webb Space Telescope to get the asteroid’s dimensions and orbit more accurately. It is expected that the telescope will be able to capture the asteroid and the use of infrared light will further help in elevating the estimates as compared to light that is reflected off the asteroid.
Key observatories involved:
- Aster Terrestrial-Last Alert System (ATLAS). Based in Rio Hurtado, Chile.
- Magdal Ridge Observatory. Based in New Mexico.
- Danish Telescope. For monitoring.
- Pan-STARRS Telescopes. Based in Haleakala, Maui.
- Very Large Telescope. Based in Chile.
These observatories monitor asteroids like 2024 YR4 until they are too far away for ground-based telescopes to capture, allowing tracking to continue.
Consequences of potential impacts
Should an asteroid such as the 2024 YR4 collide with Earth suffering from an estimated speed of 38,000 mph, it would be likely that there would be local destruction with the possibility of catastrophic results, but no global devastation. Even so, the damage caused can be dire for certain areas.
Risk corridor
NASA has determined a “risk corridor” that includes populated areas in multiple countries which include, but are not limited to India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. These regions would face the brunt of such an asteroid, so much so that it would render them uninhabitable were the trajectories to align with the asteroid.
In the words of David Rankin from NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project: “While the chances of an impact remain slim… we cannot ignore the potential consequences if the asteroid hits Earth.”
The force released by this potential impact would far surpass the force released by an atomic bomb.
Scientific analysis
Asteroid 2024 YR4 on the Torino scale (which determines Earth object threats) is categorized at level three. This means it poses a risk that isn’t expected to kill people on a global scale, instead resulting in some degree of local destruction if the asteroid were to collide with our planet.
Kelly Fast from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office underscores: “Even though it’s a very low probability… It’s not often something this size reaches that level.”
This explanation highlights both how unusual the serious risks are, as well as the need for constant surveillance.
Later developments
Along with the planned future observations using more sophisticated telescopes, like the James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for late this year or early next year, depending on weather conditions after April when ground-based observatories will not be able to track it until June. Some plans for the next few years involve new capabilities aimed at the detection and deflection of potentially hazardous objects before they become a threat.